How We Predict
Every verdict on CricVerdict is transparent by design. Here is exactly how we research a match, how the model turns that research into a win probability — and what it deliberately is not.
Before the verdict: the research
We never start from a number. Before any probability, each matchup is researched from current, public sources so the verdict reflects the team that is actually taking the field today:
- Recent results — each side's last several matches in this format.
- Squad & availability — the named XI, returning stars and injury or rotation news.
- Head-to-head — how these two teams have matched up historically.
- Venue record — scoring patterns and results at this ground.
- Pitch & conditions — surface, weather, dew and day/night factors.
- Context — what is at stake, the series situation and current rankings.
The five signals
Each team is scored 0–100 across five weighted signals:
- Recent form — 35% — momentum and results right now carry the most weight.
- Team strength — 30% — long-run quality of the squad across departments.
- Head-to-head & venue — 20% — the matchup history and the ground.
- Pitch & conditions — 10% — who the surface and weather favour.
- Rankings & context — 5% — official standing and what the game means.
From signals to a probability
The weighted signals combine into one score per side. We add a small home-advantage bump, then convert the gap between the two scores into a win probability with a standard logistic curve — a bigger gap means a higher probability and higher confidence. Test matches also reserve a slice of probability (typically 14–18%) for a draw. Finally, every probability is capped between 10% and 90%, because no cricket match is a sure thing.
Confidence
Each verdict carries a confidence label. A wide gap between the sides is High, a moderate gap is Medium, and a tight matchup — or one where reliable information is thin — is Low, where we stay close to a 50/50 split and say so rather than feign certainty.
What this is not
CricVerdict is analysis, not gambling. We publish no betting odds, tips or stake advice and carry no bookmaker links. The goal is to help you understand a matchup — who is favoured, and why — not to wager on it.
FAQ
Are CricVerdict predictions betting odds or tips?
No. They are analytical win-probability estimates built from public data — recent form, team strength, head-to-head, venue and conditions. We publish no betting odds, no tips and no stake advice, and carry no bookmaker links.
How is the win probability calculated?
For each match we research five signals — recent form (35%), long-run team strength (30%), head-to-head and venue record (20%), pitch and conditions (10%) and rankings and context (5%) — and score every team 0–100. We add a small home-advantage bump, then convert the gap between the two sides into a probability with a logistic curve. Test matches also reserve probability for a draw.
What do the confidence levels mean?
Confidence reflects how far apart the two sides score. A wide gap is High confidence, a moderate gap is Medium, and a narrow gap — or a match where reliable data is scarce — is Low, where we sit close to 50/50 and say so plainly.
Why do you cap the extremes?
Cricket is famously unpredictable, so we never show either side as a near-certainty. Every probability is kept between 10% and 90% — upsets are part of the game.
Where does the data come from?
Live and upcoming scores come from CricketData.org (free tier). For each prediction we research current public sources — recent results, squad and injury news, venue records and conditions. Historical statistics come from Cricsheet, which is openly licensed. We do not scrape other cricket sites.
Questions about the model? About CricVerdict.